DR PREDRAG KON FOR KURIR: 'It's as if we're doing a COLLECTIVE HARA-KIRI, with individuals, society, and decision-makers resisting
"Serbia seems to be committing a collective hara-kiri (suicide). This sort of attitude has been around for months now, both regarding the vaccination and the resistance to introducing and adhering to epidemiological measures. The resistance of individuals, the society at large, and the decision-makers is evident. This is why in 2021 we had many infections and deaths for an extended period of time, which I found most difficult to deal with, as it could have been otherwise," Dr Predrag Kon, chief physician, epidemiologist, and member of the Covid-19 Task Force, said in an interview with Kurir.
It is often said that the Omicron strain is weak and that it causes milder symptoms, so why would anyone be bothered too much over corona now?
"The general impression that we have of Omicron is that, overall, it causes a milder form of the disease, but we still don't have data that we can rely on. The worst thing is that we still don't know how the disease will present in elderly, chronic, or severely ill patients with a compromised immune system. The problem is primarily that young people aren't getting vaccinated, and the vaccine is at its most efficient in that age group. Only 30 percent of the under-30s have been vaccinated. As for the flu, we have vaccinated the elderly, with the efficiency ranging between 30 and 50 percent, but the vaccine primarily protected lives. If young people were to get protected now, Covid-19 would circulate less."
Strict measures have been imposed all across Europe, and over here things seem relaxed. Should we expect a sudden hike in infections around Christmas?
"We won't be able to clearly see what is going because, typically, during New Year's and Christmas celebrations new cases are under-recorded – far fewer people will visit Covid walk-in centres than is really necessary. About five days after the New Year's celebrations, there will be a sudden jump, which will be registered a while later. This hike will stand at 20 percent and will exceed 30, even 50 percent weekly. Now we have 1,200 new infections weekly on average, and if there's a 30-percent increase, this will give us 1,600 next week, with over 2,000 on some days. It's clear that there is going to be a sharp increase, with the numbers rising weekly. You can expect nothing less, given the results of the vaccination and the fact that the vaccine effectiveness has been reduced. Except for those who have had a booster shot, where it is also reduced, but not as much."
Will there be more than 5,000 new infections daily by the end of January?
"We cannot make that assumption because we have natural immunity and 6,000 daily infections on average in the period of seven and a half weeks. We should also add those vaccinated to this."
But those who have had Covid contract Omicron faster?
"Yes, the data indicates that reinfections are five times more frequent with Omicron than with the other significant variants."
Are we in for some stormy weather again?
"There are already more than 600 new infections in Belgrade, and that indicates that the numbers will rise sharply. But we still haven't been exposed to Omicron – Delta has gone down, but that doesn't mean that New Year's gatherings don't pose a risk. The measures aren't adequate, and the only solution – which is what the medical wing of the Task Force suggests, but which doesn't get accepted – is banning public gatherings for the festive period and introducing 24-hour passes."
Will you resign, given that your expert suggestions are constantly ignored by the decision-makers from the political wing of the Task Force?
"A resignation is out of the question without a collective resignation of the Task Force medical wing, which has been discussed a few times."
When was it discussed last?
"A few months ago, when we were looking hard for new measures. We've constantly been sending very clear warnings that the measures need to be adopted."
A year ago you predicted that in April 2021 we would have herd immunity. Were you mistaken regarding people getting the vaccine?
"I wasn't mistaken at all, I never believed that more people would get vaccinated than already have. All this is an effect of decades of antivaxxers' actions and ideas, which have taken root all across Serbia. I don't think anything will change quickly in this regard. But we need to keep working and trying to find ways to ramp up the vaccination. Unfortunately, there will be a surge in interest again – insufficient though – when mass infections start happening soon."
Why aren't we dealing with vaccinating children aged five to 12? This has been approved both in the US and the EU, and we always follow in their footsteps.
"It depends on whether the vaccine has been registered for use for that age in Serbia, including by the National Immunization Committee. But, hand on heart, when the vaccination rates for ages 12 to 17 are so low, the priority is to increase that. The Belgrade municipality of Stari Grad has reached 20 percent, which is quite good compared to one percent, which is the case in a huge number of municipalities across Serbia. We'll be facing problems with other vaccines as well, e.g. the MMR and the rest of them. Ultimately, avoiding getting protected means more deaths, and that holds across the board, not just for the pandemic-related vaccination. The HPV vaccination, aimed at protecting against cervical cancer, is planned to start soon. Deciding not to vaccinate girls is practically deciding to allow the risk of infection to potentially lead to cancer. Resistance to immunization has been built up for a long time, so a 58-percent vaccination rate is a huge success."
But that's 58 percent of adults, not the total population.
"There is nearly 48 percent in the total population, which certainly isn't enough for herd immunity. However, this isn't all that important anymore because even those vaccinated can get infected, and we aren't vaccinating many people very quickly."
When will we see the light at the end of the tunnel?
"I believe that it will be in 2022. Not just based on hope, but also on facts and epidemiological assessments related to the coronavirus. A milder variant is expected to emerge, which will infect huge numbers of people and, alongside vaccination, result in the collective immunity that we have been after for so long. When such large numbers of people in this country have decided not to take the jab, that means they are raring to get infected. Whoever doesn't get the vaccine opts for infection. It's an either-or sort of thing. And that's what nature is demonstrating to us at full force with Omicron. Therefore, all that's happened is what we had been warning of since the start of the vaccination."
Is Omicron nonetheless the beginning of the end of corona and a point at which it will become like the common cold?
"We all sincerely hope so, and as lots has been written about this in the media, it's seen as the truth, but we do not have actual data yet."
When will the Task Force be abolished?
"It's unlikely that the Task Force will be abolished, as the situation must first become stable to a point where corona manifests itself as a seasonal disease. It should turn into an endemic form, which means the virus is present, but without any problems for the healthcare system, with no modifications or expansions of the capacities for Covid patients. As a result of the reduced immunization of children, it's not impossible for other epidemics, which we have completely forgotten, to emerge again. Mandatory vaccination is on the agenda again, and the medical wing of the Task Force pointed out back in May that it was necessary for vaccination to be mandatory for certain professions, and medical workers in particular."
Kurir.rs/Jelena S. Spasić
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