"The President of Russia Vladimir Putin has underestimated the Ukrainians, and it appears that no one dared tell him what poor condition the Russian Army was in. This is an incredibly tragic conflict of Christian Orthodox Slavic brothers. Among other things, the euphoria that prevails in Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, and London is an obstacle to peace – all of them would like to stamp Russia out. And Ukraine – such a big country, destroyed to such an extent – will be a big burden for the miserly administrations in Washington and Brussels."
This is how historian Predrag Marković summarized in his interview with Kurir the year behind us – a year that that has brought a war between Russia and Ukraine, a deep global crisis, the division of the world into blocs, and, as far as Serbia is concerned, numerous problems relating to resolving the Kosovo issue.
Is it an exaggeration to say that in the past year – as a result of the Russian attack against Ukraine – the world as we had known it changed entirely?
"The peace – such as it was – between the West and Russia has come to an end. Many people in the West, including both Kissinger and the Pope, thought that provocations from the West had led Putin to start this war. In Putin's view, this is a war with the West that could not be avoided. He thought that after the Afghanistan collapse, the response of the US would be weak. Unluckily for him, and perhaps unluckily for the whole world, the Biden Administration is full of 'hawks'. This belligerent political team has radicalized the relations with China as well. Since 1989, perhaps even since the Korean War, the relationships between the three biggest powers have never been worse. Our position is extremely difficult. On the one hand, there are the Western powers, which are not acting as friends or allies. On the other hand, there are Russia and China. Such as it is, Russia is an ally and patron in international bodies. Russia's diminishing reputation is presenting serious problems to both Serbia and the Republic of Srpska."
After ten months of this war, what are Russia's and Ukraine's positions today? Was Russia's power overestimated and Ukraine's courage underestimated before February?
"Putin himself underestimated the Ukrainians. He didn't think that Ukrainians were a proper nation, or that Ukraine was a proper state. He believed that his first strike would topple the 'treasonous' regime in Kyiv and that the Ukrainian people would gladly embrace the union with the Russians. That is why he attacked Ukraine using a similar number of troops as Croatia did when it attacked Krajina in Operation Storm. So, Russian forces shouldn't be underestimated despite the miserable impression that they give now. It is interesting that the Russians had until recently held back on the large-scale destruction of the civilian targets. Let us recall that NATO was destroying bridges, railways, and the energy infrastructure in Serbia much sooner and more cruelly during the war, even far away from Kosovo. The Russians have still not bombed the entire Ukraine. They are probably still hoping that the Ukrainians will realize they would be better off with the Russians. The Ukrainians are the same people who – together with the Russians – won the greatest victory in the history of the world – the one against Hitler. This is an incredibly tragic conflict between Christian Orthodox Slavic brothers. Rather than celebrating the 1945 victory together with the Russians, the Ukrainians will from now on remember the war against the Russians."
How would you assess in brief the conduct and behaviour of the Russian President Vladimir Putin?
"Putin said that he had learnt on the streets of Leningrad that, if a fight is about to start, he'd better strike first. Problem number one is that the opponent isn't on the ground. It would appear that no one dared tell Putin and Patrushev – his principal security advisor – what poor condition the Russian Army was in. Problem number two is that, inspired by Dugin, Ilyin, and other conservatives, he believes that he should be the leader of the non-Western world, which would stand against the decadent, materialistic, and immoral West."
What about the conduct of Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
"Zelenskyy kept being underestimated because he is an actor and a comedian. They had forgotten Reagan, who was an even worse actor, and yet one of the most successful US presidents. Actors read 'the audience' better than anyone else. In the case of Zelenskyy, that would be the international public. Besides, they are excellent improvisers, and emergencies like this require a great deal of improvisation. That said, he is now in danger of exaggerating in his acting and playing the game."
Is it too optimistic to expect some sort of peace in 2023?
"Instead of a fast special operation, the war has turned into an attrition contest. Now it is no longer similar to the Winter War between the USSR and Finland, in which the Finns gave the Red Army a good run for their money. It looks more and more like the war between Iraq and Iran in which tens of thousands of people got killed too for minor movements of the border. Perhaps Russia's goal has now been changed. If he is unable to return it into his sphere of influence, maybe Putin wants to weaken Ukraine to a point where independent survival is barely possible. Then, Ukraine taking sides with the West would turn into a Pyrrhic victory of the NATO pact. Before the war, Ukraine came second in terms of poverty in Europe, after Moldavia. Such a big country, destroyed to such an extent, will be a huge burden for the miserly administrations in Washington and Brussels. The second obstacle to peace is the euphoria that prevails in Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, and London. They would like to stamp Russia out now. Both Kissinger and Mearsheimer, the greatest experts in the so-called realist school of diplomacy, think that Russia must not be too humiliated, because the collapse of Russia could radicalize it to an unimaginable level. At any rate, let us just recall the Weimar Republic and what the feeling of humiliation in Germany led to."
Is a redistribution of global power underway? And where is China in that process?
"You could compare the present state of affairs with ancient Greece. Many decades of rivalry between Athens and Sparta weakened both states. Eventually, Macedonia – a country outside of what was then the Greek world – rose up. Such is the case with China, a country outside of the European world. The weakened Russia is finding economic relief in the ever-stronger Chinese embrace. In terms of industrial production, China is, or soon will be, stronger than the US and the EU together. The growth of India, Vietnam, and Indonesia is also spectacular. But we are talking about countries with different political and social norms than in Europe and America. The world economically dominated by China and India, and demographically dominated by Africa, will be different from today's world. In that world, the importance of the Western Balkans will diminish. The entire region will have a smaller population than Lagos or Cairo. The greatest number of young poor people will be living in Africa. It will be important for the EU to strengthen the countries on the migrants' African route. Therefore, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, perhaps also Egypt and Libya, will gain greater importance in the European foreign policy than us here. This historical marginalization may not be so bad. Finland and Iceland were far away from the mainstream, and look at them now."
The coming year is seen by many as very important for resolving the Kosovo issue. Can we expect significant progress in this area given that the state of affairs on the ground appears to have never been more difficult, that the dialogue between Belgrade and Priština is virtually non-existent, and that the EU leadership keeps tolerating the radical moves made by the Kosovo PM Albin Murti's regime?
"The EU is behaving like an unprincipled teacher. When the worst child, i.e. Kurti, engages in shenanigans, she tells off both sides although Serbia hasn't made a single provocation, a single wrong move. As far as the EU and the US are concerned, the compromise means Serbia accepting all Priština's demands. And as a reward, we'll be given a voucher that we'll be able to redeem in a decade or two. No wonder that the support for the EU is lower today than at the time of wars and sanctions."
There are more and more voices claiming that the Kosovo issue can be resolved only if the US takes on a key role.
"It would be ideal if the Kosovo issue were returned to the UN. However, the relationship of the West on the one hand, and China and Russia on the other, is so bad that their constructive collaboration in, say, the Security Council, is inconceivable."
V. K.