“This is a terrible anniversary, of course, and a sad one, frankly. 24 February 2022 will live in infamy,” US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill said in an exclusive interview with TV Kurir on the anniversary of the war in Ukraine.
“After all, Russia attacked its neighbour and has endangered the world’s energy supplies, endangered the world’s food supplies, endangered peace and security in Europe, all over a place called Donbas. So, it has been a series of terrible events. I think that the Ukrainian people, with help from different countries, are fighting back, and it is very clear that Russia cannot win this war. It needs to get out of Ukraine. I think that the Indian Prime Minister Modi said it best when he said, ‘This is no time for war.’ “
Analysts call this a war of attrition, and at this point very few dare predict the winner, but they all agree that neither side will allow themselves to be defeated. Do you agree with the assessments that the war would have ended a long time ago if the West had not provided enormous support in the form of weapons and logistics?
“I would rather put it in terms of this war would have ended a long time ago had Mr Putin understood that the Ukrainian people are not interested in being conquered by their neighbour. I think that is the issue. I think Ukraine has benefitted substantially from the help of other countries, and I think we need to understand why other countries are helping Ukraine. They’re not helping Ukraine in order to defeat Russia, or somehow invade Russia, or cause the collapse of Russia. They’re helping Ukraine to maintain Ukraine’s sovereignty and maintain some kind of concept in the world that you cannot just attack your neighbour and conquer your neighbour. I think it’s been a very important display of solidarity, especially among the European allies, including the countries of the European Union. I think this kind of solidarity is very important. I know that Russia somehow counts on this coalition of countries helping Ukraine will give up. They are not going to give up. President Biden was very clear about that in his recent speech in Poland and during his courageous trip to Kyiv.”
Vladimir Putin said that Russia tried to resolve the conflict in Donbas peacefully, stating that the West is to blame for the war and that the West’s commitment to peace is a “cruel lie”. What is the truth?
“First of all, it must be understood that Russia started this war. There was no crisis that would cause Russia to start this war. They started this war in a mistaken belief that they would win the war in a few days. After all, Russian troops coming in from the north thought they could take Kyiv in a matter of days, and they had parade uniforms in their backpacks. They were prepared to march through Kyiv kind of in a way that we saw very totalitarian countries marching through countries in World War II. It did not happen because the Ukrainian people have fought valiantly. Yes, indeed, they’ve received help, and people who fight valiantly to defend their own, they deserve that help. Mr Putin would prefer that they not receive that help, but I think the rest of the world would prefer that he get out of Ukraine.”
EXCLUSIVE - US AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER HILL FOR KURIR: On Ukraine war, nuclear weapons, Vladimir Putin, and 2024 election.
Nuclear weapons pose a special danger. Just a few days ago, Putin announced the suspension of the participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which is believed to be the only remaining agreement that controls the nuclear arms race between the US and Russia. Putin said that the Ministry of Defence should be ready for testing nuclear weapons, but also said, “We won’t be the first, but if America does the testing, we will, too.” Is America really going to do this first? Should these words raise an alarm and cause fear in the whole world?
“The only country that has been talking about nuclear weapons is Russia. No one else does this. The United States is committed to this treaty and does not suspend its participation in it the way Russia has suspended its participation. I think the answer to your question is – absolutely no. The US has no intention of violating this treaty. The problem is that Putin, having failed on the battlefield, having failed in this concept that somehow Ukrainians would welcome the Russian Army in Ukraine, is now trying to scare the rest of the world by talking loosely, and, frankly, irresponsibly about the use of nuclear weapons. I think that this is really an index of how low Russia has gone in the past year, to be a world power that has nuclear weapons – and with nuclear weapons comes great responsibility – and yet Russia has acted irresponsibly in its very loose talk about nuclear weapons. I can assure you, however, that the United States stands by its commitments.
“It is a country that does not seek to invade its neighbours and somehow threaten the world with nuclear weapons. That description fits much better to Russia, as it tried to scare people and otherwise tried to create a false impression that somehow the world is divided. The world is not divided. You have Russia, on one hand, and the rest of the world, on the other hand. Some countries are helping Ukraine militarily, others are helping Ukraine through humanitarian assistance, but, frankly, very, very few countries are supporting what Russia is doing. We’ve seen this over and over again in votes in the General Assembly of the United Nations, and I rather suspect we’ll see this again very clearly when the new resolution is passed on the occasion of the one-year anniversary.”
If Russia is defeated, and given that it is the largest nuclear power, with over 6,000 nuclear warheads, is there a fear that its territory will be dismembered and that the nuclear weapons will end up who knows where, resulting in an even worse global danger? This is the danger that some military experts are worried about. What is your opinion on this?
“First of all, the aims of Ukraine, the aims of the countries helping Ukraine, are not to invade Russia and are not to dismember Russia. These thoughts are coming out of Moscow for the purpose, really, of trying to suggest that Russia is a victim in all this, and we really have to have a logic that stands head over heels, and it’s upside down to suggest that Russia is a victim here. Nobody is talking about the dismemberment of Russia, no one is talking about invading Russian territory, but everybody is suggesting that Russia needs to end this war and get out of Ukraine. The idea that Russia was somehow forced to do this is nonsense. Ukraine was not joining NATO a year ago, Ukraine was not seeking to undermine Russia’s security interests. That is utter nonsense, and I think Moscow should understand that, and their decision to go ahead and spew out this nonsense suggests how desperate they are, but there are very few people in the world who can believe this.”
US President Joe Biden was in Kyiv. The President promised all support to Ukraine and said that Russia will never win, and that every inch of NATO territory will be defended. However, apart from the USA and the EU, very few countries actively support Ukraine, at least in terms of weapons. Is it a disappointment for you that the whole world has not joined the EU and the USA in support of Ukraine in every possible way, which was somehow expected?
“I think the weapons flow for the purpose of weapons coming into Ukraine and helping Ukrainians defend their homeland has been substantial. In fact, Moscow has constantly complained that there are too many weapons coming into Ukraine, and Moscow is trying to suggest that this is not Russia’s aggression of Ukraine, but rather a war between Russia and NATO. Again, this is total nonsense. As for international support for Ukraine, we see this time and time again, and we’ll see it again, as the UN – not just the Security Council – but the UN general membership is utterly clear and overwhelming in the belief that Russia needs to withdraw from Ukraine.
“I don’t think there’s any disappointment about Western solidarity. I think the only disappointment has come from Moscow in its inability to defeat the Ukrainian forces on the battlefield, and now it tries to see if they can divide other countries. It is very clear that no country wants to see this war, and yet this was a war of choice by Mr Putin, thinking it would be easy.
“War is a serious means with serious ends, and is never easy. There are many examples in history where countries have thought something would be easy, and it’s turned out to be extraordinarily difficult. The Russian leadership in Moscow is simply the latest country to understand that when you go to war, you’d better know what you’re talking about, what you’re thinking, and clearly, Russia has made an enormous miscalculation. I know that every day we hear the Russian leadership saying that this war is going exactly as we planned. However, there isn’t anybody in the world who believes such nonsense. This has been nothing but disaster for Russia, and they should get out of Ukraine and try to rebuild their own country, which has been ravaged by sanctions and, frankly, ravaged by divisions, because many Russian people do not support this invasion of their neighbour. Many Russian people don’t want that. Unfortunately, Russia is not a democracy. For as long as Mr Putin and his advisors – I say they’re advisors, but they’re not really advisors because he doesn’t listen to anyone but himself. I think we have a major problem within Russia, and Russia needs to start solving this.”
Some say that the key factor is what China will do. Does the US already see China as taking Putin’s side in the war? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that China is considering sending weapons to Russia. On the other hand, China claims that it does not take sides and calls for peace. We saw that the Chinese President’s foreign policy advisor Wang Yi visited Moscow and sent some strong messages. Of course, let me remind you of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that “If China joins forces with Russia, a world war will break out.” Is Zelenskyy right to be concerned? How should we – citizens of the world – understand these messages?
“I think it is fair to say that the US and China have had many disagreements. We have many problems that we need to address together with China. But I think we also understand, and the Chinese understand, that our relationship, the relationship between the United States and China, is very important and that we need to continue to work very hard diplomatically and through many other channels to address our problems. China has made very clear they do not support this war. The last thing China wants in the world is to have a war. They have had an economy that they are trying to revive after a very, very difficult struggle with Covid, and I think China very much wants to see its main markets open. Those markets that China has are not in Russia, they’re in Europe, they’re in Latin America, Africa, the United States of America, which is an enormous trading partner for China.
“I think the fact that the Chinese foreign minister was in Russia, trying to talk to the Russians, by my analysis, wasn’t in support of Russia, but rather an effort to make the Russian leaders understand that there is going to be no magical way out of this war, that Russia is not going to be able to recruit other countries, such as China. China is not interested in going to war with anybody. I think it’s very important for Russia to listen to all the other countries. Let me quote the Prime Minister of India, who made it very clear that India has no interest in this war even though it has had a relationship with Russia.
“I think it’s fair to say China also has no interest in this war. Russia is looking around, asking around for some kind of way to scare people, for some kind of way to widen the conflict, but in fact Russia knows it can end the conflict today if it simply withdraws its forces. And by the way, I might add that it has the Russian Army there, but then it has this rather strange private army known as Wagner. We have to see how it all sorts out. That is what we mean in diplomacy when we say – it is a mess.”
Some of the most important countries in the world are having elections in 2024. Votes will be cast in the US, Russia, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, Taiwan… How would major changes affect the geopolitical picture of the world? Maybe we could expect some changes in the USA if it had another Republican president, perhaps even Donald Trump, or someone else. Let us not forget that there are parts of the Republican Party that want to stop arming Ukraine.
“There are parts of the Republican Party – I would say small parts of the Republican Party – who want to give greater scrutiny to how many weapons we are actually sending to Ukraine. But I’d like to draw your attention to consistent opinion surveys throughout the US that suggest very strong support for arming Ukraine. The support, depending on the poll you read, can be upwards of 70 percent. There’s no question that the American people support this, and we are similar to many other people who understand what the international system will look like if one country is allowed to invade its neighbour, if a country invades its neighbour. The American people understand that, and, importantly, many other peoples have understood that. Frankly, I think the Russian people understand that. Unfortunately, the Russian leadership does not.
“I know that Mr Putin does not, frankly speaking, understand elections very well. To understand elections, you need to have real elections in your own country. He’s looking at elections and thinking, ‘Oh, I will be saved by the electoral process in foreign countries.’ This is not the case, there is no evidence to support him, but again – Putin is losing on the battlefield and therefore casting around into the world to see if he can come up with other solutions – loose talk about nuclear weapons, an idea that somehow China will come to Russia’s assistance, and that the election in 2024 will help him. He’s grasping at possibilities that can help him out of this situation. Frankly speaking, the best he can do is get out of Ukraine, that will get him out of this situation.”
And what about the US and the elections there?
“The Republicans will have a candidate, and that will start getting determined in early 2024. There are a lot of candidates who want to be president. Former president Trump is one of them, the Governor of Florida is another, former governor of South Carolina, and the former UN ambassador. There are several others, so we’ll have to see. On the Democratic side, President Biden, who is quite extraordinary in his energy, is indicating that he wants to go for a second term. We’ll see, but I did want to stress that these elections are really about American politics. They will address the issues within the US, and as for American foreign policy issues, I would urge you to understand that there are much fewer differences on foreign policy issues than there are on internal differences. That’s pretty typical of most countries.
“As for Ukraine, the American people are very clear and support the policy of helping Ukraine.”
Lastly, with your rich experience in foreign policy, can you predict the outcome of this war and the consequences for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and the US?
“The trouble with war is, in addition to the horrors that it involves, it also makes predictions very difficult. I do believe that Russia will finally understand that it cannot force Ukraine to be its friend. It’s as if Putin were saying to Ukraine, ‘Marry me, or I’ll kill you.’ That is basically their concept of the relationship with Ukraine. That is clearly not going to work. Ukraine has never had such a strong basis of national identity, such a strong basis of national pride, as they’ve had for the last year.
“My prediction is that Ukraine and the Ukrainian sovereignty will prevail, and I base this on the fact that human beings ultimately are rational people, after they’ve exhausted all the other possibilities. I think that Russians will understand that they need to withdraw from Ukraine and start rebuilding their country. It is such a sad phenomenon – to see a country so known for its ballet, its symphonies, novels, poetry reduce itself to entities like Wagner and this Russian Army with recruits forced to go to the front, with people being forced into battle who don’t want to be there, and so many young people getting killed. This is a war which will live through many, many centuries in history books and elsewhere, and people will understand that it is utterly unacceptable. I hope Mr Putin will understand that too.”
(Kurir.rs)