GERMAN AMBASSADOR'S KURIR OP-ED: 'Coalition negotiations won't be simple'
On Sunday, a new parliament (Bundestag) was elected in Germany, marking the approaching end of the era of Angela Merkel, which has lasted 16 years. Up until now, Germany has not been in a situation where the incumbent federal chancellor is not running for re-election. Another specificity of this election is that for the first time it featured three principal candidates: Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU), and Annalena Baerbock (The Greens). In a fair and very exciting election campaign, they had a number of televised debates (triels) aimed at winning the support of voters. This certainly contributed to a fresh increase in voter turnout.
The SPD has won the most votes and secured a small advantage over the CDU. This is why Scholz holds that it is now up to him to form a coalition. However, Armin Laschet has also announced that he would start coalition negotiations with the aim of forming the government under his leadership.
As a result, what the new government will look like is still up in the air. It is thought to be certain that it will consist of three political parties – in itself a new development as well. A coalition of the Social Democrats with the Green Party and the liberals (FDP) – the so-called Traffic Light coalition, as the colours of these parties correspond to the colours of the traffic light – is conceivable. Another possibility is a coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), the Greens, and the FDP. In this case, the colours of the parties correspond to the colours of the Jamaican flag, which is why it is called the "Jamaica coalition".
No matter which coalition we get in the end, the Greens and the FDP are sure to have a place in the future government. This means that the principal concern of the Green Party – climate protection – will play an especially big part in the next government. The coalition negotiations will not be simple, as there are significant differences between potential coalition partners, related to a number of issues. For instance, while the Greens champion the issues of environmental protection and work towards clear goals of environmental policy, e.g. an early phasing out of coal in the production of electricity, the liberals advocate a policy that pays special heed to the needs of the economic sector, with as few government guidelines as possible.
And what does the result of the election mean for Serbia and the Western Balkans? Accession to the European Union of the states in this region will remain a high-priority issue for Germany even with the SPD as the dominant force. In the 16 years of Angela Merkel's chancellorship, the so-called Grand Coalition, led by the Christian Democrats, was in power for 12 years, and in these 12 years the minister of foreign affairs was always a Social Democrat. Therefore, both parties together set the guidelines for Germany's current policy towards the Western Balkans. This means that, if a government is formed under the leadership of the SPD, continuity would be ensured.
Due to a number of possible coalitions, it appears that we will have to be patient until the new government is finally formed. Until then, the current federal government will continue to perform its duties, meaning that Angela Merkel might leave her former mentor, Helmut Kohl, behind and become the longest-serving federal chancellor. It goes without saying that I was especially glad that the Federal Chancellor visited Belgrade once more on the eve of the election, following her 2011 and 2015 visits.
