RUSSIA’S VICTORY WOULD HERALD WORLD WHERE NO ONE IS SAFE! Giaufret: ‘We make clear distinction between Russian people and regime’
“Serbia remains an important partner of the European Union (EU). The Government of Serbia has reaffirmed that European Integration is its strategic goal. Serbia has made progress in a range of areas in order to meet the EU criteria. However, in order to become a member state, it must align with the EU policies, which include foreign affairs,” Emanuele Giaufret, Head of EU Delegation to the Republic of Serbia says in his interview with Kurir.
As regards the Kosovo issue, Giaufret says that the European proposal represents a historic chance, adding that Brussels will insist on the formation of the Association of Serb Municipalities (ASM).
Addressing the Russia-Ukraine war, Giaufret notes that the EU will continue putting collective pressure on Russia to put an end to its imperial aggressive war and withdraw troops and military equipment from Ukraine.
Belgrade and Priština have accepted to work on the European plan regarding Kosovo. Is this a chance to normalize relations at long last? Does the implementation of this plan have to be preceded by the fulfilment of the previous obligations, such as the ASM? And is this a great success for the EU?
“The EU proposal is a historic opportunity. This is why it is excellent news that President Vučić and Prime Minister Kurti have agreed that no further discussion about the EU proposal is necessary. However, success comes with the actual implementation of the agreement. The EU High Representative pointed out after the meeting that all the previous agreements made in the dialogue remain valid and binding, which of course includes the formation of the ASM, and we will keep insisting on this urgent matter. It is necessary to see the positive aspects of this new agreement. The agreement can provide new economic opportunities by means of increased financial aid, business cooperation, and new investments in Kosovo and Serbia. It will also be a turning point in the process of Serbia’s integration in the EU. The EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčák will continue his diplomatic efforts in March, in Belgrade and Priština, preparing for the next high-level meeting. We must all work together to make sure all agreements are implemented.”
The EU has been sending messages that the future of Serbia lies in the EU. Our country has recently received a €600m grant for the construction of the high-speed Belgrade-Niš railway and, previously, considerable support in the amount of €165m for the energy sector. How satisfied are you with the collaboration between Belgrade and Brussels?
“We have been honouring our promise that we would help Serbia handle the energy crisis and further develop its infrastructure. We have introduced a new energy package for the Western Balkans, from which Serbia has immediately received €165m to mitigate the effects of the energy crisis for vulnerable households and businesses. This money is already in Serbia’s budget. We have signed a funding contract for the high-speed train which will connect Belgrade and Niš in 100 minutes. We are financing this through a mix of favourable loans and grants, and investing a total of €2.2b in this project.
“We will continue to run over 300 different projects in Serbia, and in the past several years, we have donated to Serbia over €400m per year through such projects. And these are just EU donations. On top of this, there are favourable public loans, as well as private investments by EU companies. Addressing the German Chamber of Commerce, President Vučić has recently said that German companies alone employ over 100,000 people with families in Serbia, and that the companies have subsidiaries with which they do business. Therefore, the actual number of users is much larger. Serbia remains an important partner of the EU. Its government has reaffirmed that European Integration is its strategic goal. And Serbia has made progress in a range of areas in order to meet the EU criteria.
“However, in order to become a member state, Serbia must align with the EU policies, which includes foreign affairs and, of course, making progress towards the normalization of relations with Priština. This includes improvements in key areas, such as the rule of law, media freedom, and good neighbourly relations, because the EU is first and foremost a community of values. To become an EU member state, it is necessary to meet the criteria from a total of 35 negotiation chapters.”
What is the world like a year into the Russian attack against Ukraine? What has this war shown?
“The Russian invasion has caused the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, and its effects keep resonating all across the world. But firstly, the war in Ukraine itself keeps resulting in the destruction of the infrastructure, civilian homes, cultural legacy structures, and everyday loss of lives and kidnappings and deportations of Ukrainian children into the areas under the control of Russia or into Russia itself.
“The invasion has forced millions of Ukrainians to flee from the conflict. The UNHCR has registered 8,087,952 refugees from Ukraine all across Europe until 20 February 2023. That makes up about 20 percent of the Ukrainian population, while at the same time many Russians have been trying to avoid recruitment and have fled Russia. Many Russians and Ukrainians have sought a safe haven in Serbia. In the meantime, the war has induced the process of NATO expansion, with Finland and Sweden aiming at membership after decades of official neutrality. This has also spurred on the interest in EU membership – if by that we mean the aspirations towards the EU of Georgia, Moldavia, and, of course, the Ukrainians. Moldavia and Ukraine now have the status of candidate countries.
“Let us also recall that Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of wheat, barley, corn, and edible oil, especially to African and Near-East countries. Turkey and the United Nations acted as mediators last summer to make sure that the Ukrainian wheat was allowed to pass though the Black Sea ports, but Russia still interferes with the deliveries, using food as weapons.
“Since the second half of 2021, there has been a steep increase in energy source prices all across the globe. The price of fuel additionally increased as a result of Russia’s invasion against Ukraine, which has caused concern regarding energy supply security in the EU. The decision on the part of Russia to stop the delivery of gas to several EU member states has had an additional impact on the situation. In the Versailles declaration, issued in March 2022, the EU leaders agreed to end the dependence on Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible. And so much has already taken place in this area. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the import of gas from Russia into the EU has been considerably reduced. Prior to the invasion, the EU had imported nearly 50 percent of its gas from Russia, and now the figure is closer to 10 percent. This has mostly been compensated by a sharp increase of the import of liquefied natural gas from other producers as well. We have become more efficient, and our economies have overcome the transition.
“Last November, the EU Council agreed the content of new measures aimed at providing and dividing the supply of gas in the EU. The new measures will improve solidarity in the event of an actual state of emergency and gas shortages. Owing to the common agricultural policy, the availability of food and fertilizers is not the primary concern in the EU. The EU is largely self-sufficient, and it can be expected that its common market will prove its role the absorption of shocks, ensuring food security for the EU citizens, and guaranteeing support for the European farmers’ revenues. There has been a great deal of misinformation and lies about empty supermarkets in the EU countries. There are no supply problems at all. No one in the EU was freezing at home or was hungry. Europe is strong.
“One year on, nothing has changed in the resolve of the European Union and its members states regarding the support for the independence of Ukraine and its right to self-defence. The European Union will keep putting collective pressure on Russia to put an end to its imperial aggressive war and withdraw its troops and military equipment from Ukraine.”
Can you picture Europe one day after the war ends?
“Now, if you would like me to picture a post-war Europe, then what I am picturing is a strong EU, which supports a free Ukraine in its original borders and making progress in its aspiration to become an EU member state. The EU will come out stronger from this war and even more determined to implement and protect a multilateral order based on rules. Only that will establish a lasting peace.”
What is your assessment of the EU’s actions in the previous year with respect to the war in Ukraine?
“The EU has remained united and has responded with great determination. We have just imposed the 10th package of sanctions to make Putin’s war more difficult. This package includes measures against 121 individuals and entities which are key to the continuation of this brutal war, including those responsible for military activities and political decisions, who use misinformation and malicious narratives to poison the public space, contributing to the military war via the information war. We are also targeting those involved in inhumane deportations and forced adoptions of Ukrainian children in Russia, as well as those responsible for the development of drones which strike Ukrainian civilians and the civilian infrastructure. The EU’s sanctions against Russia are specially designed not to target food and agricultural products. The restrictive measures that we are undertaking are aimed against the Russian Government and the economic elite that supports it. We make a clear distinction between the Russian people and the Russian regime. We will continue to step up the pressure on Russia and to support Ukraine, for as long as it is necessary.”
How dangerous would it be to give in to Russia and the Russian President Vladimir Putin? Can this be a message to others in the world that force pays off?
“If we stop supporting Ukraine, there will be no peace. It would be a victory of the aggressor over the victim, which would pose a horrific threat to our collective security. We cannot assume that Putin will stop in Ukraine. Other countries rightfully fear that they may become victims of Russian aggression. And that is not ‘a European issue’. This is not about ‘The West against Russia’; rather, it is about the world in which we want to live. Russia’s victory would herald a world in which no one is safe and where unlawful use of force would be normal. This is why 141 countries, including Serbia, voted to condemn the aggression at the General Assembly of the United Nations. The world has said, ‘No’ to Putin, and this is an important political signal.”
On the other hand, would a complete isolation of Russia from the international scene be too high a price to pay?
“Russia is profoundly isolated, and it is important to send a clear message that the international community cannot tolerate such violations of international law, including war crimes and crimes against humanity, as well as using food and energy as weapons, bringing so many lives into harm’s way across the globe.”
Do you think that Putin is aware of how much damage he has inflicted on Russia and the Russians by this war?
“I cannot imagine that a man under whose leadership children are kidnapped and civilian homes bombed, and Russians who oppose this are arrested, is openly concerned about his people and the damage to Russia. I think he is only interested in himself and his goals – no matter what. The fact that he has only hurt the Russians and Russia is evident. Russia has gained nothing. The number of Russians who have fled Russia so far is historic. According to some estimates, it is more than 500,000 people. Over half a million of Russians have been driven away! Perhaps for ever. In addition, thousands of Russians have perished on the battlefield in a foreign country.”
What has been the effect of the EU’s sanctions against Russia? We can see that even within the Union itself there are politicians who think that the sanctions have brought almost nothing, that they have not helped achieve peace in Ukraine at all, and that they have at the same time, according to these estimates, inflicted damage to the European economy.
“Our restrictive measures are there to sanction the conduct of the President, the Russian Government, and its military, but not the nation. The goal of a great deal of the sanctions is to weaken Russia’s ability to finance the war. And the effects of the sanctions are visible. In my opinion, there are three parameters based on which you can see the effects of the sanctions as authorized by the EU Council. Firstly, the public deficit. In January 2023, it is 14 times larger than in January 2022. Secondly, the trade deficit: much larger. Thirdly, carbohydrate revenues: halved in January 2023 as against January 2022. In 2022, the sanctions were not fully in place, the energy source prices were very high, and we still depended on gas from Russia.
“At the present moment, the prices have dropped. Russia is selling its oil at 40 dollars per barrel with the market price being 80 dollars. Therefore, they are getting one half of the market price – and we have freed ourselves of our gas dependency. Hence, this year will be very bad for the Russian economy.
“The Russian economy is very vulnerable due to the lack of diversification and its planed-economy characteristics. It depends to a high extent on exporting natural resources and does not have, for example, a well-developed technology and the services sector. The sanctions reduce their exports. Russian has also banned exports of numerous products because these products are needed by Russia itself, which underlines again the economic effect of the EU sanctions. The sanctions are weakening the key Russian export sectors, which are central to the Russian economy, e.g. steel and gas, as well as disrupting the export of many recognizable Russian products, such as vodka or caviar. The sanctions aimed at Russian oil and petroleum products will additionally shrink the revenues in the Russian budget, so less revenue will go into the 2023 state budget. The sanctions are weakening Russia’s economic base, depriving it of critical technologies and markets, and considerably reducing its ability to wage the war.
“Although the effect of the sanctions is largely long-term, we can already see the effects, such as the production of weaponry, aircraft and train maintenance, or the drop of the Russian GDP by an estimated 4.5 percent in 2022.
“The sanctions are working. They need to be maintained over a longer period of time, and we must ensure that they are not bypassed, which we will be paying special attention to. The sanctions themselves are not the only response to stop the war. In addition to the sanctions, we have also been providing substantial military aid to Ukraine so that it could defend itself. That has certainly considerably strengthened Ukraine. As regards the European economy, I can share the fact that at the moment, throughout the EU, we have the lowest unemployment rate since 1999.”
Lastly, how would you briefly assess the behaviour of the Ukrainians and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy?
“The Ukrainian President was offered to be evacuated when the war broke out. He bravely stayed on and is leading his country in a dignified manner. The Ukrainians are also bravely fighting against the aggressor and proudly defending their country – because the people are paying a high price every day. Let us recall that only a few weeks into the aggression – in March 2022 – the President of Ukraine put forward the idea to adopt Ukraine’s neutral status in exchange for security guarantees during the talks with Russia in Turkey. Russia took this off the table and continued to send missiles. The idea that the NATO expansion is the cause of the war is therefore simply a myth. Ukraine has developed into a democracy – the most terrifying nightmare for people like Putin and President Lukashenko in Minsk.
“In the meantime, President Zelenskyy presented a new plan in 10 points, which the EU fully supports. Russia took that off the table as well and wants to keep the territory that it has unlawfully conquered.
“The people of Ukraine can still count on the EU. And we count on Serbia standing side by side with us. The European path brings the biggest opportunities. The EU path is the rule of law and compliance with the laws, while Putin’s path is the rule of weapons.”
Boban Karović
